Dear friends,

Happy new year! I hope you enjoyed the holidays and that your organizations have strong momentum from year-end. I was grateful to spend time with family and friends in Annapolis over the break, and now I’m ready to dive in for a new year.

To start, I wanted to share the major strategic issues I’m tracking for Avalon and our clients. As always, I don’t have a crystal ball—but here are six opportunities and challenges that I expect to shape our work in 2025:

1) The (GOP) Elephant in the Room

With a power transition underway in Washington, many nonprofits are preparing to navigate new political realities. While we don’t know exactly what to expect, we do know that uncertainty and volatility are likely—and this will impact nonprofits, fundraisers, and donors alike. As always, Avalon will follow the data and will emphasize dynamic messaging and strategy. We will learn from history by tracking benchmarks and each client’s data, and we will face the future by analyzing and incorporating new information. Together with each of you, I know we will meet the moment—not only because we must, but because we’ve been here before, and we have the tools we need to succeed.

2) Stewarding Swings in Giving

Currently, some organizations are experiencing a “Trump bump” that is lifting their bottom line. Other nonprofits, including many nonpartisan groups, are not. However, as we learned during the pandemic, unexpected events can transform any organization at any time. It’s important to understand best practices, so we’re ready to act if needed.

For a positive giving surge, I advise nonprofits to treat additional revenue like a nonrenewable grant or bequest. Invest or spend wisely—and don’t bank on continued growth until you have a proven strategy for retention. Let your data guide decisions as you develop a plan to retain and engage these new donors. Always keep in mind that future growth is an opportunity, not a foregone conclusion.

For a negative swing, you will also want data to be your guide. Look to your history, assess your options, and establish a baseline for recovery. Whatever happens, do not rush into deep cuts that decimate your strategy. Doing so prolongs the harm caused by a downturn and makes recovery more difficult. Your job in this situation is to cut with a scalpel (not a machete), so you can both address immediate needs and steward the big picture.

To be clear, I don’t expect wild swings. But it’s wise to be prepared. The Avalon team has decades of experience and has seen our sector through a recession, a pandemic, major elections, inflation, and countless ups and downs. Most importantly, we have the data and strategy expertise to help our clients move forward. Whichever way the wind blows, we’ve got you.

3) A New Chapter for Equity and Inclusion

With Trump’s election, the political climate for progressive programs has become unfriendly. In addition, H.R. 9495 (a.k.a. “the nonprofit killer”) has raised concerns around targeting by federal officials. We must navigate these challenges with purpose, and I hope we will not dwell in fear. A better alternative is to define with intention what DEIB leadership means for your organization right now, and to pursue those goals with courage and care.

The work may look different for each of us, but we will learn from and encourage one another. At Avalon, we will build on our Fundraising Choice Points research, which recommends an emphasis on inclusion and accessibility. We will embrace unity messaging where it works for our clients and advances these goals. We will continue to celebrate direct response fundraising as inherently grassroots and democratic. And, with everything, we will diligently test and measure to inform decisions, evolve strategy, and keep making forward progress.

4) Machine Learning with Purpose

As nonprofits and their agencies explore options for AI integration, we’re already seeing the impact of AI in data modeling. These advances are exciting, although nonprofits should continue to vigilantly analyze the ROI of these models, including the cost of the model. In addition, efficiencies in our way of working are coming fast. This isn’t a way to replace staff, but it’s a fantastic way to QC your work – whether it’s proofreading, checking queries, or double-checking calculations. Finally, we must keep in mind that anything created by AI will always need human intervention. Where we currently need the most careful oversight of AI is in content creation. We must never do anything that would jeopardize donor trust, and authenticity will continue to be the gold standard.

5) Omnichannel Strategies

Giving Tuesday and year-end results have shown us yet again how essential omnichannel communication practices are for nonprofit fundraising. The days of siloed areas of strategy are over, and active collaboration across channels is the name of the game.

As always, Avalon’s goal is to bring on higher value donors at a lower cost to acquire, getting your program to positive ROI much faster. In addition, retention will be a critical focus as the overall pool of donors continues to shrink across the industry.

To achieve this, nonprofits must include thoughtful cultivation and upgrade strategies—all backed by data, with clear engaging messaging across online and offline channels—alongside sound fundraising techniques. Implementing a purposeful omnichannel approach will be the best way to optimize each donor’s experience with your mission, strengthen retention, and drive growth.

6) Supporting Connection on Our Team

It’s hard to believe, but this March will be the 5-year anniversary of the pandemic and the day we all went home. Many organizations, including Avalon, have opted to stay remote—a decision that I’m very happy with today. Not only has it allowed us to hire incredible talent across the country, but we can also offer more flexibility and freedom to our team.

However, remote work also comes with challenges. It demands nothing less than excellence in communication and management. Relationships require extra time, trust, and attention. And it can be harder to see if someone needs help.

I am so proud of how Avalon manages this by embracing connection as a strategy for success and wellbeing. Our commitment goes beyond lip service; it involves real work that includes our buddy system, virtual events and chats, small social cohorts, carefully curated trainings, and regular in-person gatherings. It is my intention to continue this work and to keep learning how to support our team even better.

Year after year, Avalon’s culture has been the secret ingredient that ensures we bring our best to each other and our clients. I’m so glad that, by reading this Dispatch, you are also part of our community. I look forward to accomplishing great things with the Avalon team and all of you in 2025 and beyond.